Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue on an upward trajectory well into 2024. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2022 report, the global net anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2019 were approximately 12% higher than the level recorded in 2010 and 54% higher than in 1990.

This worrying trend shows no significant downturn despite a total commitment by more than 20 countries to reduce their gas emissions and the reprieve in carbon emissions in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The report from IPCC highlighted energy supply sectors as the main anthropogenic GHG emitters, with a contribution of 34% to the total net GHG emission in 2019, followed by industry (24%), agriculture (22%), transport (15%), and construction (6%).

However, the emissions from warfare may need more attention and scrutiny from the global community. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen, Sudan, and Congo, just to name a few, have emitted substantial amounts of carbon and other GHGs into the atmosphere.

Climate justice reporter Nina Lakhani stated, "emissions generated during the first two months of the war in Gaza were greater than the annual carbon footprint of more than 20 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations”. She added by saying that an estimated 281,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂ equivalent) were generated in the first 60 days after 7 October 2023 from Israel’s aerial bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza based on research conducted by UK and US analysts.

The situation in Ukraine is equally severe, if not more. Viktoria Kireyeva, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, speaking at a conference on the sidelines of the COP28 climate conference, said, "The total amount of emissions after 18 months of war is estimated to be 150 million tons of carbon dioxide, which is more than the annual emission of a highly developed country like Belgium”, per The Japan Times report.

Lennard de Klerk, an expert working for the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War, stated that the emission from warfare in Ukraine is primarily due to fossil fuel consumption, fires, movement of refugees, and detours for planes avoiding Ukraine. However, de Klerk also said that the most significant emission comes from rebuilding towns and cities left in ruins by the war, which he estimated to be 54.7 million tons or a third of the total emission from warfare.

What is more concerning is that massive GHG emissions also come from everyday operations and manufacturing of military equipment worldwide, particularly by global superpowers such as the United States. Lorraine Mallinder, reporting for Al Jazeera, wrote that “the US military is the world’s largest institutional consumer of hydrocarbons, belching out more emissions than industrialised nations like Portugal and Denmark”, based on a research paper authored by Belcher et al. published in the Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers in 2019.

The transpartisan Overseas Base Realignment and Closure Coalition data indicates that the US has 750 overseas military bases in more than 80 countries, including US colonies/territories. Patrick Bigger, the research director of the US-based Climate and Community Project (CCP), was quoted in the same Al-Jazeera article saying that “The US now has more than triple the number of overseas bases as it does diplomatic missions, all of which require fossil fuels for operations and generate waste and pollution”.

The US armed forces are estimated to have consumed about 269,230 barrels of oil/day in 2017 alone. Bigger added, “The bulk of the fuel is guzzled by weapons systems – tanks, ships, and planes – as much as 80 percent going on fuel for fighter jets operating at high altitudes”.

The impact of the US military on climate is largely ignored. The US government lobbied for an exemption for military activity from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which was finally removed during the 2015 Paris talks. However, reporting emissions from defence systems and military activities remains optional.

References:

1. AFP-JIJI (2023, December 5), Ukraine war responsible for 150 million tons of CO2 emissions, The Japan Times.

2. Mallinder, L. (2023, December 12), ‘Elephant in the room’: The US military’s devastating carbon footprint, Al Jazeera.

3. Lakhani, N. (2024, January 9), Emissions from Israel’s war in Gaza have ‘immense’ effect on climate catastrophe, The Guardian.

4. Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Reisinger, A. et. al (2022), Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change, Working Group III Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.